Marvin Zonis, professor of business administration

COVER STORY
The Politics of Terrorism

As the U.S. engages in its struggle against terrorism, the nation also faces questions about this campaign’s effects on economics, politics, international law, foreign affairs, and domestic policy. Last fall, alumni from the University of Chicago and Northwestern University gathered at Gleacher Center for a panel discussion on “The Politics of Terrorism,” sponsored by the two schools’ alumni associations.

Faculty from Chicago and Northwestern—including the GSB’s Marvin Zonis, professor of business administration and an expert on Middle East politics—comprised the panel, which was moderated by John Callaway, former host of WTTW-TV’s Chicago Tonight.

Zonis focused on threats to the U.S. economy and on the crippling blow that the attacks may have delivered to the age of globalization. “We will have less trade, we will have less investment in other countries, and lower global economic growth because of an increased perception of risk,” he said. The end of globalization would mostly harm developing countries, he said, creating a grim prognosis for the war on terror. “It is these very countries whose prosperity will be important in the future, both for building a global coalition [against terrorism] and for preventing the rise of other terrorist groups.”

Turning to the U.S. economy, Zonis placed the country in the context of an “extraordinarily challenging” world economy—so challenging, he said, that 2001 was the first time in 30 years that no major developed nation saw economic growth. In addition to the global scene, domestic pressures also may hurt the nation’s economy. “We are transferring resources from the private sector, which can grow economies, to the public sector, which serves important functions—one of which is not economic development,” he said.

However, Zonis identified a few positive signs amid the economic turmoil, including the Federal Reserve’s cuts in interest rates, the dramatic decline in the price of oil, and the increase in federal spending. “The United States in the year 2001 is not comparable to Japan in the year 1990,” he said, emphasizing the United States’ “superb fiscal condition.” He added that the nation’s strong financial institutions, human capital, and a positive regulatory climate bolster this financial strength. He ended on a positive note: “The economy will be growing again within a year, and I expect significant continued growth thereafter.”

“This is a time for the American people to be resolute and determined to bring this horrible series of events to a conclusion.” —Marvin Zonis

Zonis was joined by the University of Chicago’s John Mearsheimer, R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor in political science; Douglass Cassel, director of Northwestern’s Center for International Human Rights; and Benjamin Page, Fulcher Professor of Decision-Making at Northwestern’s law school.

In his discussion of international law, Cassel emphasized the need for global cooperation and U.S. involvement in world affairs. “Before September 11, we were the last nation on earth capable of the self-delusion that we could get our way in the world without paying much attention to other countries, the norms they adopt, and the institutions they create,” he said. “Now, we have discovered that we need the world, and so more than before September 11, international institutions and international law come into play in determining our self-interest.” While global law enforcement efforts clearly benefit from strengthening international antiterrorism law, Cassel also pointed out that the success of the U.S. military action depends on the degree to which the United States is perceived as complying with international law in waging war.

Mearsheimer assessed the military, diplomatic, and nation-building components of the U.S. strategy for fighting the war on terrorism, asserting that the nation and its allies face major obstacles. He predicted that only sustained action by ground troops will ultimately defeat Afghanistan’s Taliban government, but that extended military action will pose diplomatic problems, alienating moderate Arab states and threatening the antiterrorism coalition. But the biggest challenge, in his view, will be successfully rebuilding the nation of Afghanistan and eradicating its terrorist presence.

“If there is one state on earth where you wouldn’t want to do nation-building, this is it,” Mearsheimer said. “There are approximately 11,000 [‘sleeper’ terrorists] out there with their crosshairs on [the United States]. How are we going to find them, how are we going to get to them, and how are we going to prevent many more terrorists from rising?” Mearsheimer concluded that “it’s going to take a miracle” to remove the terrorist threat.

Page considered the war on terrorism from a more long-term perspective, addressing the strategic cooperation the United States will need from other countries and from its own citizens. “The key to [the United States’] long-term strategy is going to be police and court action in other countries, especially in Arab and Islamic countries,” he said. However, to gain this support, the United States has to consider other nations’ motivations and ability to cooperate, Page said. To enhance the possibility for this support, Page urged the U.S. government to forge friendlier ties with Arab nations—including Iran and Iraq—and to support fair governments and economic development in the Arab world.

After the panelists spoke, Callaway asked them each to describe how the crisis has affected their thoughts and feelings. In his response, Zonis emphasized a newfound need for “hard thinking” and “concrete objectivity” that he sees as crucial to the fate of the campaign against terror. “I feel utterly resolute and focused,” he said. “And this is a time for the American people to be resolute and determined to bring this horrible series of events to a conclusion.”—E.H.